January to August: Surprising roster stability for Yankees

Three dates separated by many months and many transactions, and it’s remarkable how little the Yankees’ roster has looked each time.

On January 10, after the offseason trades were done and the major contracts were signed, I posted a projected Yankees roster. It was pure speculation about what the roster might look like on Opening Day. Of those 25 roster spots, 23 were guessed correctly (albeit, with Adam Warren’s role incorrect). The two that were incorrect were thrown off by spring training injuries. For the most part, though, the Yankees’ Opening Day roster could have been accurately predicted three months before it was set.

On April 6, the Yankees actually opened the season with their roster officially in place. They were waiting for a few players to come off the disabled list, and they realized a couple of relief roles might fluctuate throughout the season, but they had a lineup, a bench, a rotation and a bullpen. Five months later, the team played its August 31 game with 25 players still on the active roster. Of those 25, 19 were on the Opening Day roster. Two others would have been on the Opening Day roster if not for injuries.

The four active players on August 31 who were neither projected on January 10 nor active on April 6 were all young players who’d played their way out of the minor leagues: Greg Bird, Luis Severino, Bryan Mitchell and Branden Pinder.

This team has made a ton of moves, and they added a whole new group of guys when rosters expanded this week, but from early January to the end of August, the team has remained relatively stable. It’s fluctuated along the way but always come back to, more or less, what we always expected.

From the projected roster in January, to the Opening Day roster in April, to the active roster before September call-ups, here’s a look at unexpected stability.

LINEUP

Projected	Opening Day	August 31
C Brian McCann	C Brian McCann	C Brian McCann
1B Mark Teixeira	1B Mark Teixeira	1B Mark Teixeira
2B Stephen Drew	2B Stephen Drew	2B Stephen Drew
3B Chase Headley	3B Chase Headley	3B Chase Headley
SS Didi Gregorius	SS Didi Gregorius	SS Didi Gregorius
LF Brett Gardner	LF Brett Gardner	LF Brett Gardner
CF Jacoby Ellsbury	CF Jacoby Ellsbury	CF Jacoby Ellsbury
RF Carlos Beltran	RF Carlos Beltran	RF Carlos Beltran
DH Alex Rodriguez	DH Alex Rodriguez	DH Alex Rodriguez

Along the way: Jacoby Ellsbury and Carlos Beltran each missed some time with injuries — Ellsbury actually missed quite a bit of time — but for the most part, the projected lineup has been the actual lineup. There have been platoon starters at second base and in the outfield, but only nine Yankees have more than 300 at-bats this season, and they’re the exact nine who were expected to get the bulk of the playing time from the very beginning.

Unnoticed changes: Obviously Mark Teixeira wasn’t actually in the lineup playing first base on August 31, but he was active and at the top of the depth chart, just still dealing with that lingering shin injury. In terms of a role, he remained the starting first baseman, just couldn’t play for a while (probably should have been on the disabled list, but he wasn’t). If it’s more accurate to have Greg Bird listed in that spot, it’s still a remarkably consistent group. This position-by-position listing doesn’t show changes within the lineup, but even those were relatively minor outside of Alex Rodriguez’s move into the No. 3 hole.

Biggest surprise: Has to be the health and production of Rodriguez, right? Heading into spring training, there were questions about whether he could even make the team, and if he did make the team, questions about whether he could hit enough to play against righties and lefties. He’s already given the Yankees much more than expected. Beltran’s resurgence has also been a bit of a surprise.

BENCH

Projected	Opening Day	August 31
C John Ryan Murphy	C John Ryan Murphy	C John Ryan Murphy
OF Chris Young	OF Chris Young	OF Chris Young
INF Brendan Ryan	INF Gregorio Petit	INF Brendan Ryan
1B/DH Garrett Jones	1B/DH Garrett Jones	1B/DH Greg Bird

Along the way: What this chart doesn’t show is the attempt to use Jose Pirela as a right-handed utility man. He would have made the Opening Day roster had he not suffered a concussion, but when he finally did replace Gregorio Petit, Pirela simply didn’t hit enough to stick around. This chart also doesn’t show the brief attempt to carry Dustin Ackley as the left-handed power bat. Ackley replaced Garret Jones, who came back briefly only to be replaced by Greg Bird. Lately Bird has been the starting first baseman, but his spot on the depth chart is clearly second-string.

Unnoticed changes: Brendan Ryan and Chris Young have not been strictly bench players. They’ve been everyday options against left-handed starters, and John Ryan Murphy has also gotten quit a bit of playing time against lefties. Young and Murphy have been constants this season, never once losing their spots on the roster. It looked like Ryan might lose his after the All-Star break, but the Yankees kept him ahead of Rob Refsnyder.

Biggest surprise: Probably how little playing time Jones got before being designated for assignment (twice). He was supposed to backup at three vulnerable positions, but those three positions wound up being sources of stability. It’s also surprising that Pirela, who once again raked in Triple-A, couldn’t hit enough to scratch out a role off the bench.

ROTATION

Projected	Opening Day	August 31
Masahiro Tanaka	Masahiro Tanaka	Masahiro Tanaka
Michael Pineda	Michael Pineda	Michael Pineda
Nathan Eovaldi	Nathan Eovaldi	Nathan Eovaldi
CC Sabathia	CC Sabathia	Luis Severino
Chris Capuano	Adam Warren	Ivan Nova

Along the way: Only seven pitchers have made more than four starts for the Yankees this season. They’ve used 10 starting pitchers in all, and the only ones not listed here are Bryan Mitchell (two starts) and Chase Whitley (four starts). Otherwise, the Yankees have leaned on a familiar group. Masahiro Tanaka and Michael Pineda each spent time on the disabled list in the middle of the season, Ivan Nova and Chris Capuano each opened on the disabled list, and CC Sabathia is on the disabled list now. But so far every rotation injury except Whitley’s has cleared up and allowed the pitcher to return.

Unnoticed changes: What the projected rotation doesn’t show is that Nova was always expected to join the rotation at some point. If not for Tommy John surgery last season, Nova might have been listed on all three dates. Capuano might also have won his expected Opening Day spot if not for an injury in spring training. Ultimately that injury forced the Yankees to see what Adam Warren could do as a starter, and it was eye opening.

Biggest surprise: Six rotation injuries, but only one was season-ending (and that was to a pitcher with no previous injury concerns). Despite overwhelming red flags for Tanaka, Pineda and Sabathia — plus Nova working his way back from Tommy John — the Yankees have avoided devastating injuries to the their rotation so far this season. Someone should be knocking on wood right now.

BULLPEN

Projected	Opening Day	August 31
Andrew Miller	Andrew Miller	Andrew Miller
Dellin Betances	Dellin Betances	Dellin Betances
Justin Wilson	Justin Wilson	Justin Wilson
Chasen Shreve	Chasen Shreve	Chasen Shreve
Adam Warren	Chris Martin	Adam Warren
David Carpenter	David Carpenter	Branden Pinder
Esmil Rogers	Esmil Rogers	Bryan Mitchell

Along the way: The Yankees knew going into the season that at least one bullpen spot would probably fluctuate. They probably assumed that would be Chasen Shreve’s spot and not David Carpenter’s. Once Adam Warren converted back to the bullpen, it was basically those spots intended for Carpenter and Esmil Rogers that fluctuated from week to week. There was a lot of bullpen turnover with five spots more or less secure.

Unnoticed changes: The order of the “projected” bullpen is meant to illustrate the consistency of the individual pitchers, but really, Shreve belongs in the very last spot for both the projected and Opening Day rosters. He wasn’t expected to play a key role, but he certainly has. Justin Wilson, too, has been better than expected, and both Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances settled into defined jobs rather than mixing and matching.

Biggest surprise: Everything about the Yankees’ returned for Manny Banuelos has been surprising. It’s been surprising just how good Shreve has been, and it was surprising just how bad Carpenter was (and how quickly Joe Girardi stopped trusting him). It has perhaps also been surprising that none of the young right-handed relievers really took hold of a bullpen job and stuck around without shuttling back and forth from Triple-A.

Associated Press photos

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